Quantifying survey expectations: What’s wrong with the probability approach?
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Quantifying survey expectations: What’s wrong with the probability approach?∗
We study a matched sample of individual stock market forecasts consisting of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts. This allows us to test for the quality of forecast quantification methods by comparing quantified qualitative forecasts with actual quantitative forecasts. Focusing mainly on the widely used quantification framework advocated by Carlson and Parkin (1975), the so-called “prob...
متن کاملRapid Survey of Wasting and Stunting in Children: Whats New, Whats Old and Whats the Buzz?
Nationwide Rapid Survey on Children (RSoC), conducted by the Ministry of Women and Child Development and UNICEF in 2013-14 showed a marked improvement in the status of the child malnutrition over the third National Family Health Survey (NFHS-3) that was conducted in 2005-06. Despite some impressive gains in the anthropometric indicators of malnutrition, the absolute levels remain high, and of c...
متن کاملQuantifying Heterogeneous Survey Expectations: The Carlson-Parkin Method Revisited
We propose a generalized ordered response model that nests the popular Carlson-Parkin (CP) method to quantify household inflation expectations while explicitly control for cross-sectional heterogeneity in the threshold parameters and the variance. By matching qualitative and quantitative data from 1979 to 2012 from the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers, we find evidence against the t...
متن کاملWhats and whys with neonatal CT.
What and why? As health care professionals, we must address both of these questions in scientific inquiry as well as in clinical practice. Most times, facts (the “what”) are relatively easy to come by. The reasons (the “why”) behind these events are usually more difficult to discover and understand. Let us look at the example of head computed tomography (CT) in a group of neonates. There are 2 ...
متن کامل6xuyh\([shfwdwlrqv Survey Expectations *
This paper focusses on survey expectations and discusses their uses for testing and modeling of expectations. Alternative models of expectations formation are reviewed and the importance of allowing for heterogeneity of expectations is emphasized. A weak form of the rational expectations hypothesis which focusses on average expectations rather than individual expectations is advanced. Other mod...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Forecasting
سال: 2013
ISSN: 0169-2070
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.07.005